A season of storylines and controversy will only become more intense with added playoff pressure
DARLINGTON, S.C. – As questions swirl around how stock car racing’s premier series ought to crown its champion, the marathon continues into Darlington Raceway, as the NASCAR Cup Series opens up their 10-race dash to the Bill France Cup.
The 2025 season has already seen intensity at a fever pitch in its regular season. Lawsuits alleging monopolistic practices by the sanctioning body from contending teams 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports have dominated the headlines, with both teams losing the ability to compete as chartered entities, at least for now.
Meanwhile, on-track action has been spectacular at some times, and downright frustrating to watch at others, leaving fans and industry members alike wondering what the best course of action is moving forward. Many are questioning if we even need a playoff format for stock car racing.
As the sport remains mired in controversy, we will still see one of sixteen drivers battle and earn the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship. With all roads leading to Phoenix, it’s time to break down each of the contenders and see how we got to this playoff field, and who has the best opportunity to make it to the illustrious championship round in November.
16. Alex Bowman, #48 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
(Prediction: Out in Round of 8) Bowman’s relief after the checkered flag flew in Daytona was palpable. The driver saw himself on the fringe of the cut-line in the waning laps as upset-contenders swapped the lead. As Erik Jones and Justin Haley battled, Bowman’s season was hanging in the balance. A miraculous run saw Ryan Blaney dash all of these Cinderella stories at the final corner, as Blaney won the four-wide shootout to the finish. This put Bowman in over Chris Buescher by just 30 points.
Even as the 16th seed, Bowman’s run to the championship is more likely than you would expect. He finished 9th in the regular season standings, and was in position to contend for wins early in the year on many occasions. Bowman is tied for second in the playoff standings in Top-10s, and if he can remain consistent, he could see himself in the Championship 4 for the first time, at a track where he arguably earned his current ride, when in 2016 he filled in for the injured Dale Earnhardt Jr. and contended for the win. At this stage in the season, don’t count the #48 team out.
15. Austin Dillon, #3 Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing
(Prediction: Out in Round of 16) A month ago, Austin Dillon was down and out. Glimpses of Top-10 speed were about all that Richard Childress Racing had. The frustration was at an all-time high at Dover, when team owner Childress remarked over the radio that the team needed to “get some damn race cars” after a poor performance. At the time, Dillon sat 28th in the standings, with teammate Kyle Busch holding steady in 18th. The team gradually improved in the following weeks, and when the series rolled into Richmond, Dillon was eager to prove that last year’s victory, while mired in controversy, was no fluke.
Dillon did just that, leading 107 laps (the most for the #3 team since the 1998 Daytona 500), and beating Alex Bowman to the line by two seconds, securing his post-season berth in the fashion that he wanted all along. Dillon’s success on short tracks this season is noteworthy. Many of his best runs (Bristol, Iowa, Richmond) came on these short ovals. The team also ran well at Worldwide Technology Raceway (a playoff venue this season) in St. Louis a year ago. If the team can capitalize on their strengths, they may be able to overcome their speed deficit on other track styles and try to make a deep run in these playoffs. Ultimately, I believe that the performance is not going to be enough to make it out of the first round.
14. Tyler Reddick, #45 Toyota, 23XI Racing
(Prediction: Out in Round of 8) It’s been a tumultuous summer for Tyler Reddick and the #45 team. Competing as an open team since Dover, the team has been one of a few at the center of a bitter, explosive lawsuit. In addition to that, luck has not been on their side, with crashes sidelining any momentum they try to create.
But, this is still a team that went to the Championship 4 a season ago. Even if the results have taken a step back this year, Reddick is a star, and this #45 team can go all the way again if they can clean up the mistakes. When this team runs up front and stays there, they’re one of the best out there.
13. Josh Berry, #21 Ford, Wood Brothers Racing
(Prediction: Out in Round of 16) For the second straight season, NASCAR’s oldest team is going to the playoffs. Courtesy of a win early in the year, Berry’s playoff status was all but guaranteed since March. This is the fastest the Wood Brothers team has been since Matt DiBenedetto took them to the playoffs in 2020. Strong runs at short tracks and 1.5-mile tracks have been the bread and butter of their performance, but finishing races has been their Achilles heel. If Berry can bring the car home in one piece, the Wood Brothers could be a threat to win again during the rest of this season, even if I don’t see them advancing beyond round one.
12. Joey Logano, #22 Ford, Team Penske
(Prediction: Championship 4) The defending champion has been quiet, if not unspectacular. A clutch victory at Texas after a thrilling late-race battle with Michael McDowell has put Logano in position to chase what would be a historic fourth title. Only a handful of legendary drivers have ever done it, and Logano would cement his place among the greats if he can do it again. If the Next Gen era is any indication, the #22 team is only just getting started for 2025.
11. Ross Chastain, #1 Chevrolet, Trackhouse Racing
(Prediction: Out in Round of 12) After missing the playoffs last season (and playing spoiler at Kansas), Ross Chastain is hunting for a championship once again with his Trackhouse team. A crown-jewel victory at the Coca-Cola 600 brought them back, but to stay there, they’re going to need to be up front more often. Chastain is the only driver in the playoffs to lead less than 100 laps all season, and with just three Top-5 finishes, the Watermelon Man is going to need to find a little bit more if he wants to do more than contend.
10. Austin Cindric, #2 Ford, Team Penske
(Prediction: Out in Round of 16) Austin Cindric’s early season was a revelation. Strong runs every week, including a win at Talladega, had the young driver looking like he was in the midst of a breakout season. A penalty at COTA for intentionally wrecking Ty Dillon seemed to derail this team, and they’ve struggled to find consistency ever since.
At 15th in the regular season standings (even with the penalty), Cindric is tied for the least Top-10s among all playoff drivers. I ultimately think that the consistency isn’t quite there for the #2 team, but if they find it (ala Joey Logano a year ago), they could make some noise this postseason.
9. Bubba Wallace, #23 Toyota, 23XI Racing
(Prediction: Out in Round of 12) The maturation of Bubba Wallace continues to impress as the other playoff-eligible 23XI Racing driver starts as the ninth seed in this year’s playoffs. An emotional Brickyard 400 victory was Wallace’s first regular season victory in his career.
The team has been consistently fast, but mistakes and accidents have taken them out of contention far too many times this season. A new attitude has been beneficial for Wallace’s results this year, but I think they’re still in the process of building a true contender in the #23 camp.
8. Chase Briscoe, #19 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
(Prediction: Championship 4) Chase Briscoe’s first season for Coach Gibbs has been impressive. Six poles, most among all drivers, puts the #19 out front a lot. Ten Top-5s mean that they’re staying there. He may not have as many playoff points as some of his competitors, but being up front in these races is what gets you through each round.
The speed is there, and if the results follow, the Indiana driver will earn his first Championship 4 appearance.
7. Chase Elliott, #9 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
(Prediction: Out in Round of 8) NASCAR’s most popular driver is playoff-bound once again. The strength of this team has been their consistency. Up until the very end of the regular season, this was the bona-fide #2 team in the standings behind teammate William Byron. Elliott and his #9 team will need to break through and find victory lane if they want to stay alive in 2025.
6. Shane van Gisbergen, #88 Chevrolet, Trackhouse Racing
(Prediction: Out in Round of 16) SVG’s road course dominance has been impressive to watch this season. NASCAR’s summer stretch on the road had van Gisbergen making the headlines on social media for being too good.
His biggest weakness has been performance on ovals. Four road course wins can get you to the playoffs, but with only one road course (Charlotte Roval in the Round of 12), the continued improvement on ovals will be vital to making van Gisbergen a well-rounded title threat. He has run much better in the second half of the season, but I think it will simply be too much to overcome in year one.
5. Christopher Bell, #20 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
(Prediction: Out in Round of 8) At the start of the season, Christopher Bell’s #20 team was a revelation. Three wins in a row before the end of March had Bell and company looking like 1998 Jeff Gordon. Since then, however, the team hasn’t won at all, and only scored seven playoff points (including their regular season performance bonus).
I think that the Norman, OK driver will do well in these playoffs, but I don’t think it will be enough unless this team recaptures its early-season form.
4. Ryan Blaney, #12 Ford, Team Penske
(Prediction: Championship Winner) The series’ latest winner enters Darlington with a lot of momentum. Not only did he win at Daytona for the second time in his career, Blaney also managed to grab second place in the regular season standings, netting ten additional playoff points for his efforts. This team has been stellar, especially on long runs, but seven DNFs in the regular season derailed any hope of winning the regular season title.
Fortunately for this team, the points are reset, and I think that the Team Penske #12 is peaking at the right time, and has enough speed to capture a second title in Phoenix.
3. Denny Hamlin, #11 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing
(Prediction: Out in Round of 8) The elder statesman of Joe Gibbs Racing has been battling adversity all season. The race team that he co-owns with Michael Jordan is suing NASCAR. The race team that he drives for did not have a major sponsor signed until after the season started. Regardless, as Hamlin put it at Martinsville after his victory, it’s “#11 against the world”.
Similar to his two teams, Hamlin’s been fast, but lacks execution. Hamlin is second in the series in Top-10 finishes, but with a few wild card tracks in the last round, I think he’s a surprise exit in the Round of 8.
2. William Byron, #24 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
(Prediction: Championship 4) The transition from young star to seasoned veteran is in full-swing for William Byron, the regular season champion of the Cup Series. Byron locked up that honor a full race before the playoffs began, and he and his team led the series in laps led. He’s only one twice, seeing several races get away from him in the end, but make no mistake: William Byron is going to be a contender for the Cup.
1 . Kyle Larson, #5 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports
(Prediction: Out in Round of 8) The advancement path in the opening rounds for NASCAR’s number one seed seems fairly straightforward. Some of his best tracks (Darlington and Bristol) feature in the first round. He also has the advantage of having the largest points buffer in the playoff field at the top of the seeding.
Larson’s biggest hurdle is going to be the Round of 8, with two of his worst tracks (Talladega and Martinsville) being back-to-back to end the round. Homestead, the other race in this round, is one of Larson’s strongest tracks. Larson won the Spring race at Homestead, but otherwise hasn’t finished in the Top-10 there since his win in 2022. He’s going to need to maximize in that round and hope that his playoff points can carry him to a chance at a second championship.
With all of this in mind, just remember:
There are legitimately ten or so cars outside of the championship contenders who could win any given week from this point.
Looking for underdogs playing spoiler? Look no further than the RFK Racing trio of Chris Buescher, Ryan Preece, and Brad Keselowski, who have been so close to victory, but haven’t made it all the way in 2025.
Maybe a few young guns trying to break out? Joe Gibbs Racing driver Ty Gibbs is still searching for his first win, and has shown glimpses of speed as well after a miserable start to the season. Polarizing youngster Carson Hocevar has shown glimpses of capturing his first win this season as well.
With the field as close in performance as ever, this year’s championship slate could be one of the most entertaining and unpredictable on record.
The NASCAR Cup Series returns on Sunday, August 31st for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (6:00pm EST on USA Network).
