Cup Series Playoff Preview: Round of 8 Begins in the Heartland

Cup Series Playoff Preview: Round of 8 Begins in the Heartland
Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 FedEx Office Toyota, celebrates in Victory Lane after winning the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway on October 20, 2019 in Kansas City, Kansas. Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images

Sunday in Kansas marks the start of the semi-final round of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Kansas Speedway off of I-435 outside of Kansas City, Kansas has hosted a playoff or postseason race since NASCAR went to the postseason style format in 2004. This is the first time it has been in the semi-final round of the playoffs.

In the history of the playoff race, 11 different drivers have won a playoff race. Only three times since 2004 have a non-playoff driver won the fall race at the Kansas Speedway. Those three drivers being Joe Nemechek in 2004, Tony Stewart in 2006 and Greg Biffle in 2007. Only twice have a Kansas winner gone on to win the Championship later that season, Jimmie Johnson in 2008 and Martin Truex, Jr in 2017.

Playoff Front Runners

As the series heads to Kansas Chase Elliott is riding high on momentum. Last week, he took the flag first at the Charlotte’s ROVAL. That was Elliott’s third win of the season and fourth straight win on a road course. Now he takes that energy into the heartland where he won in 2018 to clinch a spot in the final eight. Elliott is already there this season, a much bigger prize sits at the end of this tunnel should the Georgia native take one in Kansas. A trip to the final four at Phoenix awaits with a win.

The defending Hollywood Casino 400 race winner is Denny Hamlin. Joe Gibbs’ driver has been really good this season and has collected seven wins in 2020. Hamlin looks like one of the front runners for the title and returns to a track he won at last season. A victory on Sunday and Hamlin is just one step away from winning his first Cup Series Championship that has eluded him in recent years. He could still make it to Phoenix even without a win but he will have to have consistent finishes like he has all year long.

A two-time Kansas playoff winner and points leader Kevin Harvick storms to the midwest with a 13 point lead over Hamlin and 45 point advantage from the cut-off line. Like Hamlin, Harvick just has to be consistent in this round but a victory wouldn’t hurt either. Mile and a half tracks have been Harvick’s bread and butter this year. Harvick looks to do what he did in 2013 and 2016 and win. That will clinch his spot in the final four in week one of the Round of 8.

Win and You’re In

Brad Keselowski heads to a track where he has had great success in the spring but not as much in the fall. The Team Penske driver has yet to win a fall Kansas race but has been extremely good in the spring. Can he carry some spring success to the fall this year? Outside of Harvick and Hamlin, Keselowski looks to be the next best, Sunday is his chance to prove that. The 2012 champion would like to add another trophy to the cabinet in 2020.

Keselowski’s teammate is Joey Logano and he’s been clutch at Kansas. With two wins in 2014 and 2015, they have punched him to the next round. Right now, Logano sits on the outside of the cutoff looking in but two tracks he has won at sit in this round. Kansas is one of those. Look for him to be battling as he always does when the race goes green. It also helps he starts on the outside pole.

Martin Truex, Jr is the six seed heading into the Round of 8 races. A former winner at Kansas, Truex has only one win this season but has been very consistent all year long. This was a place he dominated on his way to a title in 2017 but since has run near the front but hasn’t found victory lane yet. A win Sunday puts him in the Championship 4 and forces someone out as he’s on the outside looking in.

Must Win Situations

Obviously, a lot of things can happen but for Alex Bowman and Kurt Busch to move on they will need to most likely win. For Bowman it was a fight just to get into the round of 8 holding off last year’s champion Kyle Busch. Now that he has advanced his focus is geared up for a run at a title. His lone win this year came on the two-mile at California but his first win came on Kansas’ sister track in Chicagoland. Bowman has run well at the Kansas Speedway. This is probably his best chance to win and advance in the playoffs as well.

Kurt Busch essentially knocked out brother Kyle from the playoffs with his win at Las Vegas. Kurt was not expected to advance but with his win he moved on. Busch this week will have to put himself in good positions for the weeks to come. Look for him to run near the front if his charge towards a second title is serious.

Non-Playoff News

Kansas native, Clint Bowyer makes his final start at his home track. It was announced last week that Bowyer would finish out the season in the Stewart-Haas Ford but this would be his final year as he retires. This is a track he has yet to win at and will be a long shot to get it done this year. However, being the last time he races here, expect Bowyer to do something special on Sunday before he moves to the FOX Booth on 2021.

Kyle Busch has not won a single race this season and could be in jeopardy of snapping his win streak. The 2015 and 2019 champion’s last win came at Homestead when he won the title last fall. With only four races left, Busch will look to steal a race from the playoff drivers as he moves to 2021.

Literally anything can happen when drivers know they need to make big moves to advance on. There’s only three races to clinch a spot in the Championship 4. As we know, the Championship 4 has seen many surprise drivers make it in recent years because of a win in this round. Find out who makes a run Sunday towards that goal.

The Hollywood Casino 400 goes green at 1:30pm CST on your local NBC and MRN affiliates. Stay updated on Twitter by following Always Raceday.