By Noah Nelson
NASCAR’s wild card weekend is shaping up to be exactly that, as the regular season reaches its thrilling conclusion exactly where it started in February – on the high banks of Daytona International Superspeedway.
This Saturday night shootout is the last chance for some of the sport’s biggest names to win their way into the playoffs. It also serves as the last opportunity to gain some ground in the regular season points race, which also helps determine playoff seeding at the conclusion of the 400-mile event.
Bubba Wallace sits 16th in points, 32 ahead of rookie phenom Ty Gibbs, but he may very well need to win to keep his spot in the playoffs. Wallace, a past superspeedway winner (Talladega 2021), has shown fantastic speed at superspeedway tracks for virtually his entire career. He also nearly won at Talladega earlier this year.
Wallace seemingly controls his own destiny Saturday night, as the only things that would knock him out are a poor finish or a new winner.
While anyone (except Xfinity Series regulars Riley Herbst, Chandler Smith, and Austin Hill) can win and become playoff eligible, some drivers and teams may be in a better spot than others when the green flag flies on Saturday.
Win and You’re In: Drivers Who Can Steal a Playoff Spot Saturday with a Win
Would you believe me if I had told you in the off-season that two Hendrick Motorsports drivers are in must-win situations heading into Daytona? As crazy as it is, that is the reality for Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott. Injuries, penalties, and plain bad luck have kept these two perennial championship threats from locking up postseason berths, as they sit 20th and 21st in regular season points.
Bowman has never won at a superspeedway, while Elliott has won twice (Talladega 2019 and Atlanta 2022). Either way, you can never count either driver out until the checkered flag flies, due to the body of work that Hendrick Motorsports has at superspeedways.
Could past Xfinity Series success help catapult Kaulig Racing into their first playoff appearance? The duo of A.J. Allmendinger and Justin Haley have both had great success working together in the Xfinity Series, but they’ll need to outduel each other, and the rest of the field, if they want to be championship contenders this year. Two of Allmendinger’s five top-10 finishes in 2023 have come on superspeedway tracks, while Haley has a previous cup series win at Daytona, along with four career Xfinity wins on this type of track.
Can Austin Dillon do it again? Defending race winner Austin Dillon had his season derailed by a points penalty early in the Spring, but a win would erase all of that frustration, and establish Dillon as one of the sport’s premier talents on superspeedways. A third win at Daytona would place Dillon in a tie with Denny Hamlin for most wins at the track among active drivers.
Honorable Mentions: Erik Jones (Summer 2018 and Clash 2020 Winner), Austin Cindric (2022 Daytona 500 Winner), and Aric Almirola (2018 Talladega and 2014 Daytona Winner)
With 15 of the 16 playoff spots already spoken for, it’s easy to think that those drivers have nothing to gain on Saturday night, but that’s far from true. The battle for the regular season championship is still within reach for Denny Hamlin as he chases his teammate Martin Truex Jr., as he sits 39 points back.
Brad Keselowski (6th) and Tyler Reddick (12th) are separated by just fourteen points, and with the top ten drivers receiving bonus points for the playoffs, this race could prove the difference between being a contender at Phoenix, or watching one of your competitors advance instead.
Regular Season Standings Showdown: The Battle for Valuable Playoff Seeding
Actions Detrimental may cost Hamlin the regular season crown? Denny Hamlin’s revenge tour against Ross Chastain came to a head in March, as the veteran driver plowed Chastain into the wall, costing them both numerous positions on the track. Then, on his podcast later that week, Hamlin bragged about the incident, costing himself 25 more points, courtesy of a penalty from NASCAR. A full 39 points behind Martin Truex Jr., Hamlin’s podcast episode for this week was aptly titled “Wish I Had My 25 Points Back”. A cooler head at Phoenix may have put Hamlin in the driver’s seat at Daytona, instead of hoping for a miracle.
Momentum for McDowell could place him near the top of the playoff grid? A perfect performance in Indianapolis, plus a very fast race car at Watkins Glen (derailed by pit problems and mechanical failures) has Michael McDowell pegged as one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR right now. A prolific superspeedway racer (and Daytona 500 champion), a McDowell victory on Saturday would boost his status from Cinderella story to genuine contender.
RFK Racing: A championship sleeper? Brad Keselowski’s goal for this year was simple: Build on 2022’s success with a multi-win season, and put both cars in the playoffs. The Michigan native can check both of those boxes courtesy of teammate Chris Buescher, but Keselowski, who hasn’t been to victory lane since 2021, is quietly sitting sixth in points, ahead of Buescher (7th). With plenty of recent speed, a deep run in NASCAR’s playoffs is no longer a fantasy, but an attainable goal. RFK’s ascension towards the top of the NASCAR Cup Series ladder won’t be full circle until they hold the trophy in Phoenix, but a victory at Daytona would help prove that they certainly aren’t playoff pretenders.
Watch all of these storylines unfold Saturday, August 26th at Daytona International Speedway. NBC will have the coverage starting at 7pm EST/6pm CST.
