This is part two of a two-part preview for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Weekend at
Phoenix Raceway. If you would like to revisit part one, click here.
Shifting the focus to the four championship eligible drivers, it’s easy to make a case for each of
the four to be this season’s champion. With how hard it is to advance in this playoff format, each
driver earned their way to this position, and could conceivably win it all.
Similar to part one, we will be breaking down their paths to the Championship 4, and what each
driver will need to do to capture the Bill France Cup.
4. William Byron – #24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
William Byron has officially arrived. A breakout season that saw the 25 year-old lead the series
in wins (6), Byron advanced to the final round on the strength of his playoff points. With Denny
Hamlin’s power steering failure at Homestead-Miami, Byron delivered a gutsy 13th-place run at
Martinsville, which was enough to advance by seven points. The Spring Phoenix winner, Byron
hopes to celebrate a season sweep in the desert, along with what would be his first title.
Defining Moment: Martinsville
A gritty performance sends Byron to his first Championship 4 appearance. With constant
coaching from crew chief Rudy Fugle, Byron hung in there and maintained his track position
when it mattered most. The scorecard shows a disappointing day, with not even a lead-lap finish
to show for it, but if Byron wins it all, everyone will remember his Martinsville performance for
all of the right reasons.
3. Kyle Larson – #5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
The only former champion in the group, Larson is the odds-on favorite for this year’s title. If the
2021 champ is going to repeat, he’s going to need to have a clean day. Larson has eight DNFs in
2023, including a crash at Homestead-Miami just two weeks ago while racing Ryan Blaney
down pit road. Larson, who advanced by virtue of his Las Vegas victory, is the oldest driver in
the group at 30 years-old. He is hoping that experience pays off, and as long as Larson keeps all
four fenders clean, there is no doubt that he should be the favorite heading into this weekend.
Defining Moment: Las Vegas
The victory at Las Vegas propelled Larson to the final round, after a thrilling duel with fellow
title hopeful Christopher Bell. If Bell edges Larson at the line, there’s a chance Larson doesn’t
even make the final round, with his crash at Homestead-Miami and a solid, but uninspiring, run
at Martinsville. Knowing that he was the first driver in, the team undoubtedly approached the
final two races differently, and the performance and strategy may have changed if Larson was in
a must-win situation. Regardless, he and the #5 team hope to bring home yet another title to
Hendrick Motorsports.
2. Ryan Blaney – #12 Team Penske Ford
Ryan Blaney is showcasing the potential that has been there all along, and now he looks to cap
off his electric playoff run with his first championship. The 8th-seeded driver in the Round of 8,
Blaney’s team has been the class of the field the last two weeks. These gritty, “never say die”
performances, coupled with raw speed, has seen the #12 team do their best to emulate teammate
Joey Logano’s 2018 title run, where Logano beat “The Big Three” to win his first title. Initially
seen as an unlikely contender, Blaney’s late surge has made him the #2 odds-on favorite (behind
the aforementioned Kyle Larson) to win the title. He hopes to have the same ending as his
teammate Logano did in 2018, and bring Roger Penske’s storied race team yet another title.
Defining Moment: Martinsville
Following a heartbreaking 2nd-place run at Homestead-Miami, Blaney absolutely dominated the
race at Martinsville, leading 145 laps and pulling away from all contenders late in the going at
the Virginia short track. Blaney’s results have been questioned in the past, once being compared
to Kasey Kahne by NBC Sports analyst Kyle Petty. If recent performance is any indication,
Blaney could finish the season with a victory, ultimately accomplishing something that both
Petty and Kahne could not by lifting the Cup Series championship trophy.
1. Christopher Bell – #20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Bell is having a career year, and after dominating the Round of 8, this championship might run
through the driver of the #20. After winning at Homestead-Miami, Bell’s team made it clear that
Martinsville preparations were an afterthought, with their sole focus on winning it all at Phoenix.
Even with that, Bell’s team still placed 7th, and they now set their sights on the first title for team
owner Joe Gibbs since Kyle Busch’s 2019 triumph.
Defining Moment: Homestead-Miami
Bell felt like Las Vegas was his opportunity to make the final four, and lamented his runner-up
finish to Larson, but it was actually the high banks of Homestead-Miami Speedway that sent him
to the finale. A thrilling battle with Blaney and Byron saw Bell come out on top and pull away.
Blaney’s car was better on the long run all day, but his late-race resurgence saw him simply run
out of time as Bell sailed to victory. In a race where early speed was not present, the #20 team
worked all day to make it better, and they’ll need to have the same kind of fortitude if they’re
going to beat their competitors at Phoenix.
Who’s the favorite?
Any of the four drivers could be seen as championship favorites. Las Vegas betting odds have
Larson and Blaney as the top two, but Byron won at Phoenix earlier this year, and Bell has been
spectacular in the playoffs. Any of these four would make a deserving champion.
My pick: Ryan Blaney
I said on our podcast on Sunday night that Blaney was my pick as this season’s champion. He
was the fastest car in this race a year ago, and with the roles reversed between him and defending
winner Joey Logano, I could see Blaney doing exactly what his teammate did last year, and make
it two in a row for Team Penske. This new version of Ryan Blaney that has shown up in these
playoffs has all the makings of being the elite driver that everyone has hoped he could be since
he entered the series, and I fully believe that he is going to pull it off on Sunday, and complete
his transformation from budding young talent to elite superstar.
Why not Kyle Larson? It’s been a highly inconsistent year for arguably the most talented driver
in the series, and even though he absolutely dominated in the Spring race here, I’m not sure if he
can close the deal like he did in 2021. After all, he lost the Spring race to his teammate William
Byron on a late-race restart, and if the same fate befalls him this time around, it would be hard to
imagine that he still wins the cup.
Since this format debuted in 2014, no driver has ever won the championship without winning the
race. This format has demanded perfection since its inception, and Sunday will be no different.
Whether it’s something as major as an accident, or as minor as a slow pit stop, every single
moment will be crucial throughout Sunday’s 312-lap event. One wrong move can, and will, be
the difference between championship immortality and heartbreaking defeat.
